Showing posts with label Indian Markets Outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indian Markets Outlook. Show all posts

Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 19.Sep.2016 to 23.Sep.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 19.Sep.2016 to 23.Sep.2016
(Positive next week; Fed, Bank of Japan policy meets eyed)
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.09.2016 Expected to remain subdued next week

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.09.2016 Positive next week; Fed, Bank of Japan policy meets eyed

( www.rupeedesk.in )
Share indices are seen positive next week, even as investors wait for the monetary policy decisions of
the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve
at its Sep 20-21 meet have come down to less than 50% after data in the world's largest economy
showed a decline in US retail sales and factory output for August. "If the US hikes rates, we are
looking at a 1-day fall in (the) Indian share market. The Nifty (50) may tank by 100-150 points but
will recover then. While the impact of the US Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Indian
markets will be seen on Thursday, the effect of Bank of Japan's policy will be seen on Wednesday.

Views on the course of action that may be adopted by the Bank of Japan, are mixed. Some traders
expect the bank to launch fresh monetary stimulus, but another section of the market does not see it
easing its accommodative stance further. Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended at 8779.85, up 37.30 points
or 0.4% from the previous close, and the Sensex closed at 28599.03, up 186.14 points or 0.7%. Next
week, stocks of rate-sensitive sectors such as automobiles and banks, are likely to see buying as the
next Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy draws closer. The central bank is expected to cut
interest rates in October, owing to lower-than-estimated inflation for August and expectations of
normal monsoons this year.

In the Jun-Sep monsoon season so far, the country has received 771.8 mm weighted-average
rainfall, 5% below the normal of 814.2 mm for the period, according to data from the India
Meteorological Department. Automobile and auto-ancillary stocks may also gain as demand is seen
growing during the festival season. Yesterday, the sector was the leading gainer with the Nifty Auto
index ending up 0.5%. Activity in the domestic stock market may be subdued over the next two
weeks owing to the Pitru Paksha period. This is usual for markets and trade is a little subdued during
Pitru Paksha. Pitru Paksha is a 16-day period in the Hindu calendar that is considered inauspicious.

Another sector that might see traction is the pharmaceutical sector. Sentiment for the sector is
positive given the resolution of various regulatory issues, and on account of investors shifting
allocations between sectors. Pharmaceutical companies have been in the limelight and the Nifty
Pharma gained over 2% this week, compared to a near 1% fall in the Nifty 50.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 29.Aug.2016 to 2.Sep.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 29.Aug.2016 to 2.Sep.2016
(Seen subdued next week; Fed Yellen speech eyed)
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016 (PSU refiners seen mixed; IOC, BPCL earnings eyed)

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US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech later today and data on India's gross
domestic product for Apr-Jun, due to be released on Wednesday, would be the major
triggers for domestic equities next week. It is likely that equities will trade weak if both
events fail to provide a direction.

The market is awaiting comments from Yellen for a likely course of action at its Sep 21
meeting. If there is an indication of a rate hike by the central bank, foreign institutional
investors may sell on Monday. However, equities may gain if investors see Yellen's
speech as dovish.

Next week, the Nifty 50 is seen finding support at 8500 points, a technically adding that
it faces resistance at around 8690 points. Yesterday, the 51-stock index ended 0.2%
lower at 8572.55 points, while the S&P BSE Sensex closed at 27782.25, down 0.2%.
Market participants will also track the earnings of companies such as Bharat Petroleum
Corp, Indian Oil Corp, and DLF for the quarter ended June. BPCL is expected to report
a net profit of 21.49 bln rupees for Apr-Jun on Thursday.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 8.Aug.2016 to 12.Aug.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 8.Aug.2016 to 12.Aug.2016
(Positive; RBI policy, earnings key next week)
( www.rupeedesk.in )

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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 To take cues from Jul sales data, companies' earnings

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 Positive; RBI policy, earnings key next week



With the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy scheduled for Tuesday and a bunch of Nifty 50
companies detailing their Apr-Jun earnings next week, action in equities will be largely stock-centric.
The underlying bias remains positive as indices are likely to test new highs, but gains will be followed by bouts of profit booking. Views on the monetary policy action of RBI are mixed. Some see scope for a 25 basis point cut in repo rate in view of the good progress in monsoon rains and passage of the crucial Constitution Amendment Bill for goods and services tax by the Rajya Sabha.

Cumulative rainfall in the country during Jun 1-Aug 4 was 499.1 mm, 2% above normal, and barring
east and northeast India, all the other subdivisions received above normal rainfall. Besides, the government has set the inflation target for the next five years at 4% in a band of 2-6%. The fiveyear
target is unchanged from the oneset for March 2018. This is also one of the reasons why some see room for a rate cut next week. A few others, though, expect a 25 basis points cut in repo rate only in the coming months.

The passage of GST bill has certainly paved way for a rate cut, but not necessarily in the short-term.
Given the accommodative monetary policy stance of other central banks, and expectations that
softening of commodity prices will keep food inflation moderate, a 25 basis points rate cut is likely by October. If RBI surprises the market with a 50-basis-point repo rate cut, it will result in a sharp jump in share prices, with the possibility of Nifty 50 testing 9000 points. Now, if RBI cuts interest rates, it will lead to a sharp rally, while a status quo may lead to a short-term correction.

Yesterday, the index ended at 8683.15, up 132.05 points or 1.5% from the previous close, while
Sensex closed at 28078.35, 363.98 points or 1.3%. Nifty 50 companies detailing their Apr-Jun
earnings next week include Hindalco Industries, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Hero
MotoCorp, Cipla, Lupin, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries,
Bank of Baroda, Bosch, Grasim Industries, and Idea Cellular. Next week, stocks of information
technology companies may extend losses as investors move out of 'defensive' companies, and as
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp has cut its sales guidance for 2016.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - .1.Aug.2016 to 5.Aug.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 1.Aug.2016 to 5.Aug.2016
(Monsoon Session, earnings key triggers next week)
( www.rupeedesk.in )

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 01 to 05.08.2016 (Seen up on hope of Rajya Sabha passing GST bill)

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( www.rupeedesk.in )
Next week, investors will closely monitor proceedings at the monsoon session of Parliament, during
which the Constitution amendment Bill for the goods and services tax will be taken up by the Rajya
Sabha. Sources in the Congress today said that the party has reached a broad agreement with the
government on the GST Bill, which is likely to keep investors' sentiment buoyant.

However, with both the Nifty 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex trading near their multi-month highs, there
may be a possibility of profit booking even if the Bill is passed by the Upper House, as it seems to
have been factored.

The Nifty 50 is expected to find immediate support at 8500 points next week if traders sell equities in
case the Bill isn't passed by the Rajya Sabha. We believe that the index faces immediate resistance at
8700 points, after ending the day at 8638.50, down 0.3%. The S&P BSE Sensex today fell 0.6% to
28051.86 points.

The June quarter earnings of key companies next week will also be in focus, though the run-up of
indices to multi-month highs has made some market participants nervous. Next week, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies and Tata Power Co are the Nifty 50 constituents that will report their June quarter earnings. Apart from the three, InterGlobe Aviation, VRL Logistics, Cadila Healthcare, Fortis Healthcare, Pfizer, and Tata Chemicals will also report their quarterly numbers next week.

ICICI Bank will also be in focus, after reporting a net profit of 22.3 bln rupees. The bank's asset
quality was largely stable, with gross non-performing assets at 5.87% of total loans as of June-end,
against 5.82% a quarter earlier. The automobile sector would also be in focus on Monday and
Tuesday, as companies in the sector report their sales numbers for July.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - .25.Jul.2016 to 29.Jul.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 25.Jul.2016 to 29.Jul.2016
(Stock indices are set to continue their underlying positive bias next week)
( www.rupeedesk.in )

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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 25 to 29.07.2016 (To take cues from company earnings next week)

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Stock indices are set to continue their underlying positive bias next week, in the backdrop of quarterly corporate earnings and expiry of the July futures and options derivatives contracts.
Nifty 50 companies announcing their earnings for Apr-Jun next week include ACC, Ambuja Cements, Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel, Bharti Infratel, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Eicher Motors, Housing Development Finance Corp, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki India, YES Bank, and Zee Entertainment Enterprises.

While ICICI Bank's earnings will be tracked for its asset quality and credit growth, L&T's order inflow growth, guidance and operating margins will also be under investors' radar.

The week in the run-up to the expiry of the July futures and options series will keep the movement
volatile, as traders roll over positions from the current derivatives series to the August series. During
the week, the Nifty 50 is seen moving within a range of 8420-8620 points. Today, it ended at 8451.20, up 31.10 points or 0.4% from the previous close. The Sensex closed at 27803.24, up 92.72 points or 0.3% from the previous close.

So far this month, the index has risen 3%, as disappointment on the earnings of information
technology majors has been offset by strength in global markets. Globally, equities have been buoyant on hope that major central banks will maintain accommodative monetary policies in the wake of the UK's decision to exit the European Union. The US Federal Open Market Committee and Bank of Japan are scheduled to meet next week to detail their monetary policies.

On Monday, stocks of Axis Bank will be in focus, as the lender's asset quality deteriorated in Apr-Jun, and net profit came in at 15.5 bln rupees, sharply below the estimated 19.9 bln rupees. The fall,
however, may not be very sharp, as the stock has already factored in weak earnings, ending in the
red for the fourth consecutive session yesterday.

Vedanta and Cairn India will also be in focus on Monday. The former, in an apparent bid to sweeten
the deal for the latter's minority shareholders, approved revised terms for the merger of Cairn India
with Vedanta.

Vedanta said that apart from getting one equity share in the merged entity, Cairn India's minority
shareholders will also get four redeemable preference shares of 10-rupee face value "with a coupon of
7.5% and tenure of 18 months from issuance".Cairn India's minority shareholders will also get an
implied premium of 20% to the one-month volume weighted average price of a Cairn India share.
The deal will see shares of both companies react positively. It is likely to assuage Cairn India's
minority shareholders, while Vedanta stands to benefit from the merger on account of Cairn's cash on
books.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 11.Jul.2016 to 15.Jul.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 11.Jul.2016 to 15.Jul.2016 (Economic data, Apr-Jun results key triggers next week)


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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 



Given the satisfactory progress of the monsoon in the country so far, stock indices are seen trading
with a positive bias next week, with corporate earnings for Apr-Jun and key economic data driving the trend in domestic stocks. Among Nifty 50 constituents, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy Services are scheduled to detail their Apr-Jun earnings during the coming week.

Data on Consumer Price Index-based inflation for June, as well as that on the Index of Industrial
Production for May will be released on Tuesday. On Thursday, data on Wholesale Price Index-based
inflation is to be released. India's headline inflation, based on the CPI, had risen to a 21-month high of 5.76% in May from 5.47% a month ago, while annual inflation based on the WPI rose to 0.79% in May from 0.34% a month ago.

Next week, the Nifty 50 is seen trading in the range of 8200-8500 points, with immediate support at
8280 points. Today, the index ended at 8323.20, down 14.70 points or 0.2% from the previous close.
The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 27126.90, down 74.59 points or 0.3% from Thursday.

Among stocks, stocks of pharmaceutical companies are seen extending gains, as recent approvals and
news of inspection clearances for select companies has lifted sentiment for the sector. Yesterday Alembic Pharmaceuticals and Cadila Healthcare ended 3.3% and 5% higher, respectively, after both companies received establishment inspection reports from the US Food and Drug Administration for one unit each. Lupin, however, said the US FDA had issued Form 483 to its Dabhasa plant in Gujarat and made two observations, following an inspection carried out during Jun 29-Jul 6.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - .27Jun.2016 to 1.Jul.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 27.06.2016 to 01.07.2016, To recover next week; F&O rollovers eyed

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 27.06.2016 to 01.07.2016, To recover next week; F&O rollovers eyed

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Indian equities are likely to recoup losses made on account of the UK's vote to exit the European
Union and show resilience in the coming week since the focus is seen shifting to domestic triggers
such as the progress of monsoon. Market participants believe the impact of 'Brexit' is not likely to
sustain and the underlying bias is positive, although the market will closely monitor global
developments, particularly in Europe.

Volatility is likely as the June derivative series will expire on Thursday, with investors rolling over their positions to the July series. The fact that markets recovered partially shows that the worst is over. This is a good opportunity to buy on dips.

During the week, Nifty 50 is seen trading in the range of 8000-8300 points. Yesterday, the index
ended well above the 8000-mark at 8088.60, but down 181.85 points or 2.2%. Intraday, the index
touched a low of 7927.05 points. After falling to the day's low of 25911.33, the Sensex ended at
26397.71, down 604.51 points or 2.2%. The June futures of Nifty 50 settled at 8086.90 yesterday, at
a discount of 1.7 points to the spot index, compared with the 13-point discount intraday as short
positions got covered. Open interest in the contract fell 15.43% to 13.44 mln. We seen the reaction
in the global markets to the UK referendum is an exaggerated one. Any reaction of this sort presents
a buying opportunity.

Trends in the global markets and monsoon will also lend cues to shares next week. The progress of
monsoon so far is satisfactory. Another positive is the latest policy announcements to encourage FDI
in several sectors. It is also noted that midcaps have been fairly resilient through the fall yesterday.
Sectors looking positive on Agriculture and consumption-related stocks, while it is bearish on
companies that have exposure to the UK, such as Tata Motors, Tata Steel and selected pharmaceutical companies. Another positive that the market may see on account of the UK's exit is the fall in commodity prices, particularly crude oil. This fall will aid reduction of India's current account deficit and also inflation rates which would create room for the Reserve Bank of India to ease interest rates.

Among stocks, stocks of Tata Motors are seen extending losses and may fall up to 400 rupees in the
short-term. According to reports, the company's UK-based arm Jaguar Land Rover's annual profits
could fall by 1 bln pound sterling up till 2020 due to 'Brexit'. JLR contributes 90% to Tata Motors'
revenues, while the UK market contributes 20% of the sales. Yesterday, the stock was the worst hit on Nifty 50, down nearly 8% at 449.40 rupees.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 13.Jun.2016 to 17.Jun.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 13.Jun.2016 to 17.Jun.2016 (Economic data, US Fed policy key triggers next week)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


The key domestic economic data, outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee meet, and result of the MSCI index review will drive equity markets in the coming week. While industrial growth data for April is due, inflation data for May based on both the Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index will be announced on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.

Any negative development will trigger selling, but market participants do not see the 8000-point mark being broken on Nifty 50. The growth in India's industrial production is likely to rise to 1.0% in April from 0.1% a month ago, on the back of an improvement in core sectors.

The IIP data will not have a major impact but there might be a knee-jerk reaction if it is below expectations. Market participants are expecting the CPI inflation to be in the range of 5.3-5.5% this time. After the Reserve Bank of India, in its monetary policy, cited upside risks to inflation, the to be released data is crucial as it may decide the future course of action to be taken by the central bank on key interest rates.

In April, consumer price inflation had risen to a three-month high of 5.39%, primarily due to a rise in food prices. On the global front, investors are uncertain about the policy action of the US Federal Reserve in the backdrop of Chair Janet Yellen's recent comments and the country's jobs report data for May. The market capitalisation of A-shares is the second highest after US stocks. Inclusion of these shares will see foreign funds shifting money from emerging markets to these shares.
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 6.Jun.2016 to 10.Jun.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 6.Jun.2016 to 10.Jun.2016 (RBI policy in focus next week; bias positive)

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

The Reserve Bank of India's bi-monthly monetary policy will be the focus next week for the equities market, and any positive commentary or move by the Indian central bank will provide a further leg-up to the current momentum in stocks. Although the unanimous opinion is that the RBI will maintain a status quo on rates, direction on further interest rates, and more importantly, governor Raghuram Rajan's second term at the RBI will be watched.

Due to a number of macro events slated and its inclination towards having a better clarity on inflation trajectory the Reserve Bank may choose to repeat its commitment towards having a accommodative policy based on its inflation expectation. The Reports that Rajan is not "interested" in a second tenure at RBI had driven capital markets have been edgy earlier this week. RBI will detail its monetary policy on Tuesday. The Benchmark indices tested their seven-month highs intraday, ending the second consecutive week with gains. This data is important, and will be a key indictor for shares on Monday, as it gives hints about the US Federal Open Market Committee's likely action on interest rates.

The US Federal Reserve will start its two-day monetary policy meeting on the 14th of this month. Reports suggest that the US central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in the June meeting as it awaits Britain's referendum on its membership in the European Union. For domestic shares, the progress of the monsoon will also be pivotal. On Friday, there may be some caution in equities ahead of the release of the Industrial production data for April.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 23.May.2016 to 27.May.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 23.May.2016 to 27.May.2016 (Seen stock specific next week; earnings in focus)

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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 9.May.2016 to 13.May.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09.May.2016 to 13.May.2016 Seen up; key Jan-Mar earnings to be in focus


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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09.May.2016 to 13.May.2016 Seen up; key Jan-Mar earnings to be in focus

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Global markets are likely to dictate the trend for benchmark share indices next week, with the Jan-   Mar earnings of key companies likely to keep the action stock-specific. The underlying bias for
equities is positive after the indices declined significantly this week. This week, the index declined
1.5% to 7733.45 points. Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended flat in a volatile session, as investors
cautiously awaited data on US non-farm payrolls for April. The S&P 500 futures extended losses and
were down 0.5%, against 0.3% earlier, as lower additions of non-farm jobs stoked fear that the US
economy may not be in the pink of health. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were also  down 0.5%.

In April, 160,000 non-farm jobs were added, lower than the 215,000 added in March. At 5.0%, the
unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous month. In India, market participants remain
positive about the economy, even while keeping an eye on weak global markets. The recent correction in equities has led investors to reallocate their portfolios, and they are going long on the
banking sector. Market participants are also positive about the automobile sector, especially after
most companies reported robust sales numbers for April.

EARNINGS WATCH

Corporate earnings for Jan-Mar will be a crucial factor for markets next week, with five Nifty 50
constituents--Hindustan Unilever, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank
and Dr Reddy's Laboratories--reporting their earnings. Grasim Industries will report its earnings on
Saturday. Index heavyweight Hindustan Unilever is expected to report a 1% fall in quarterly net
profit at 10.1 bln rupees on Monday. Yesterday, the stock ended up 0.4% at 853.40 rupees. Stocks

of Dr Reddy's Laboratories, which will report its earnings on Thursday, are seen trading with a negative bias. Yesterday, the stock ended down 2.2% at 2,866.30 rupees. Other companies reporting their Jan-Mar earnings next week are SRF, Apollo Tyres, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Havells India, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, and Nestle India.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in )
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