Showing posts with label INDIAN MARKET WEEKLY OUTLOOK. Show all posts
Showing posts with label INDIAN MARKET WEEKLY OUTLOOK. Show all posts

Indian Markets Outlook & Secorwise Stocks Outlook for the week – 18.Jul.2016 to 22.Jul.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.Jul.2016 to 22.Jul.2016
(Earnings, Parliament session key; RIL in focus)
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 18 to 22.07.2016 (Seen firm next week; pvt banks' results eyed)

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Apr-Jun earnings of key companies and the Monsoon Session of Parliament which starts Monday
would be key triggers for share indices next week, even as investors monitor the trend in global
markets. Underlying bias of equities remains positive, despite yesterday’s decline. However, sharp
gains in equities over the last month which took indices to their 11-month highs on Thursday are seen
capping the rise in share indices.

The Nifty 50 is seen testing the psychologically-important level of 8600 points next week, above
which it could rise towards the resistance of 8700 points, a technical based. Yesterday, the Nifty 50
closed at 8541.40 points, down 0.3%, while the S&P BSE Sensex ended down 0.4% at 27836.50.
Next week, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement, Wipro, HDFC Bank, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank,
and Axis Bank will be reporting their earnings for the June quarter. On Monday, the initial trigger for
the market would be Reliance Industries' robust quarterly earnings, following which investors would
shift focus to the Monsoon Session of Parliament.

Reliance Industries has yesterday reported a net profit of 75.5 bln rupees, sharply higher than estimate of 65.4 bln rupees. The company's gross refining margins in Apr-Jun came in at $11.5 per barrel. Investors would hope for the passage of the Constitutional Amendment Bill to introduce the Goods and Services Tax in the Monsoon Session of Parliament. According to reports, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Ananth Kumar today met Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha, Ghulam Nabi Azad, to resolve issues surrounding the passage of the Bill to roll out the Goods and Services Tax with an aim to build consensus on the issue.

On Monday, shares of Monsanto India would also be in focus after thecompany, after market hours
today, said its parent company received a revised takeover bid from Germany's Bayer AG.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 4.Jul.2016 to 8.Jul.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 4.Jul.2016 to 8.Jul.2016 (Positive next week; Bosch, auto sector in focus)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

The stock indices are seen trading with a positive bias next week as sentiment continues to be buoyed by the recovery in global markets and the satisfactory progress of the monsoon. The recent government policy initiatives and moves to increase investment in the infrastructure sector are also seen lifting sentiment.

The implementation of Seventh Pay Commission, good development in monsoon and revised capex (capital expenditure) in road and railway has increased expectation on corporate earnings in the medium-term. According to India Meteorological Department, the country received 145.4mm of rain in June, about 11% below the normal weighted average of 163.6 mm for the month. The weather bureau had earlier said rainfall in June would be "slightly below-normal".

In 2014 and 2015, India received 12% and 14% below-normal rains, respectively. Among, shares of automobile companies are seen in focus as they detail their monthly sales numbers for June. The shares of TVS Motor are seen gaining as the company's total sales in June jumped to 247,085 units from 222,017 units a year ago. Shares of Reliance Industries and State Bank of India will also be in focus as the two have entered into a 70:30 joint venture to set up a payments bank.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 20.Jun.2016 to 24.Jun.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Market Outlook for the Week – 20 to 24.06.2016 'Brexit' referendum in focus next week; bias firm

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

All eyes would be on UK's referendum on the country's membership in the European Union on Thursday, and the uncertainty surrounding it may keep investors on the side lines next week, even though market participants believe that the underlying bias in equities is positive. The British Referendum is once a century type of event which could have a systemic bearing on some of the industries and companies. As of yesterday, the 8000-put of Nifty 50 has the maximum open interest, which indicates that the index may find support at that level in case investors adopt a risk-averse approach and sell equities ahead of the referendum. 

Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.4% higher at 8170.20, while the S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.4% at 26625.91, after concerns over 'Brexit' abated. The possibility of UK staying in the Union seem higher, with market participants expecting undecided voters to swing towards the 'Remain' campaign after the murder of British Member of Parliament Jo Cox, a backer of the 'Remain' campaign, by an alleged 'Britain First' supporter. The market is indicating that 'Brexit' may not happen as UK'S undecided voters may choose to stay in the Union after Cox's murder. The cascading effects of UK exiting the European Union on the global economy are unclear, but many market participants fear it could cause disintegration of UK itself, and worse still, that of the European Union.

This is only one of the several headwinds that threaten the very existence of the Euro-zone which appears totally dysfunctional and unable to address many social and economic problems that confront it. Ironically, as we often see in the case of a bad marriage the area is bound together more out of the fear of what will happen if it dissolves rather than because the relationship is working well.  

STOCKS IN FOCUS

Tata Motors would be the stock in focus on account of UK's referendum. Earlier this month, Tata Motors's UK-based subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc said it supported UK's continued membership of the European Union. It expects the company's key metrics to be hit if UK exits. Wockhardt is another company which has significant exposure to the UK, and a weak pound sterling may hit the company's performance in Apr-Jun. Among other stocks, Bharti Infratel is expected to continue trading weak after the stock declined nearly 10% this weak following ratings downgrades by Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 1.Feb.2016 to 5.Feb.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 1.Feb.2016 to 5.Feb.2016 RBI policy, earnings, global market eyed next week

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RBI policy, earnings, global market eyed next week
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy, Oct-Dec corporate earnings, January
automobile sales numbers, and the movement of crude oil and global equities will set
the trend for equities next week. Consensus shows the Indian central bank is likely to
keep interest rates unchanged at its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy on Tuesday in
the backdrop of recent volatility in financial markets, and the impending Union
Budget for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar). In the absence of uncertainty over interest rates,
market participants will closely monitor the RBI's stance. They expect interest rates to
remain accommodative and data-dependent.

While the tone is likely to be dovish, the RBI, in our view, will also take a moment to
remind markets of its medium-term 4% CPI (consumer price index) target, suggesting
any additional space that does open up will be measured. Through the week, cues
from global markets and the movement of crude oil prices will also be eyed as the
sustainability of gains in global equities will also depend on whether the rebound in
crude oil prices is backed by a follow-up buying. Russia's meeting with the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will also be in focus, as crude oil
prices are expected to further gain if major oil producers agree to cut production, to
overcome the glut of crude oil.

On the Intercontinental Exchange Europe, the West Texas Intermediate March crude
oil futures were trading at $33.67 a barrel, up over 1% from the previous close.
Yesterday, indices ended nearly 2% higher each, aided by firm cues from global
markets. Nifty 50 ended the session at 7563.55, up 138.90 points or 1.9% from the
previous close, intraday testing a low of 7402.80 points, and high of 7575.65 points.
Sensex ended at 24870.69, up 401.12 points or 1.6%, intraday moving between
24340.06 and 24911.90 points. The February futures of Nifty 50 ended at 7568.05, at
a premium of only 4.5 points to the spot index, and open interest in the contract rose
2.9% to 19.37 mln.

Tracking the gains in the broader market, the India VIX or volatility index fell 3.7%
to 17.2400. Today, foreign portfolio investors were net buyers of shares, stock and
index futures worth 24.40 bln rupees, data showed. Domestic institutional investors
bought shares worth 2.40 bln rupees.

Next week, Nifty 50 constituents which will announce earnings include Tata Power
Co, Tata Steel, Lupin, Bajaj Auto, Bosch, and Tech Mahindra. On Monday, shares of
Larsen & Toubro will be in focus, and are expected to fall as the engineering major,
post market hours today, cut its order inflow guidance for 2015-16 to flat from 5-7%
earlier. Companies in the automobile space will be in focus as they will announce
their sales numbers for January. The performance of the segment is expected to be
mixed, with four-wheelers and commercial vehicles likely to show growth year on
year, while two-wheelers and tractor sales may remain muted.
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 25.Jan.2016 to 29.Jan.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 25.Jan.2016 to 29.Jan.2016 ((Gains seen capped; earnings, global cues eyed))

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

The relief rally witnessed in equities yesterday may continue next week provided the
recovery in crude oil prices and global markets sustain. Next week, investors globally
will be eyeing monetary policy decisions of US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan.
The focus will be more on the commentary of US Fed, particularly after the sharp fall
in crude oil prices. The Fed will hold its two-day meeting on Jan 26-27 and Bank of
Japan on Jan 28-29.

Back home, next week, which a truncated one, will mark the expiry of the January
futures contract and therefore, volatility is set to be high. Indian markets are closed on
Tuesday for Republic Day. Moreover, several companies are scheduled to report
earnings next week, which will also keep action largely stock-specific. After ending
with over 20% losses from their recent highs on Thursday, benchmark indices
recovered smartly yesterday and ended 2% higher as crude oil prices rebounded from
their 12-year lows. Besides, comments from European Central Bank chief Mario
Draghi on Thursday led to prospects of more stimuli from the central bank,
comforting investors.

Yesterday the National Stock Exchange's Nifty 50 ended above the 7400-mark at
7422.45, up 145.65 points or 2.0%, and S&P BSE's Sensex closed at 24435.66, up
473.45 points or 2.0% from close Thursday. We think it (the recovery in the market)
will be more of a short-lived phenomenon. But we believe long-term investors should
use the sharp correction in stocks to accumulate. That the recovery in the market was
purely on the back of covering of short positions was clear from the futures data, as
the January futures contract of Nifty 50 saw an over 5% fall in open interest. But there
are some optimists in the market who believe Indian equities are done seeing major
sell-off and are set for a bounce back. A recovery was certainly due in the market and
it looks like we should see this pullback sustaining.

Earnings Watch

Besides eyeing global developments, the market will continue to focus on corporate
earnings. Nifty 50 companies detailing their Oct-Dec earnings next week include
Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki
India, NTPC, Vedanta and Power Grid Corp of India.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 11.Jan.2016 to 15.Jan.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 11 to 15.01.2016 (Economic data, earnings eyed next week; bias weak)

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 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Domestic economic data, Oct-Dec earnings and movements in global
markets will determine the trend for local equities next week, but the
underlying bias is weak as concerns persist on Chinese economy.

Due to the event-loaded week, volatility in the market will be high. We
are expecting a volatile week; hence, short-term traders are advised to
take caution, specially while dealing in mid and small-cap scrips.

On a weekly basis, indices have registered losses of more than 4%,
weighed down by the rout in Chinese markets after People's Bank of
China sharply devalued yuan.

ECONOMIC DATA

India's industrial production data for November and consumer price
inflation for December will be released by the Central Statistics Office
after market hours Tuesday, which will keep trade range bound on
Monday.

India's industrial production likely expanded 5.4% in November. Though
October's increase was largely due to base effects, conditions are on the
mend in India.

In October, IIP came in at a five-year high of 9.8% largely due to a
favourable base effect. Meanwhile, headline consumer price inflation is
expected to rise further in December from a 14-month high of 5.41% in
November.
 ( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 4.Jan.2016 to 8.Jan.2016

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.01.2016 (Seen positive next week; auto, IT companies in focus)

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.01.2016 (Seen positive next week; auto, IT companies in focus)

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Stock indices are likely to trade positive next week as investor
participation in the market is expected to return without significant selling
pressure. Also, a positive trend in global markets, if any, may aid gains
in local equities.

Information technology companies, which are generally the first ones to
start detailing their quarterly earnings, are likely to be in focus as they
react to earnings estimates for Oct-Dec.

Stocks of automobile companies, who did not detail sales numbers during
market hours yesterday, and will likely do so over the weekend, will also
be in focus. Stocks of public sector banks, which have seen buying
interest this week, may extend gains, even though they are expected to be
short-lived.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 28.Dec.2015 to 1.Jan.2015

Click The Below Links To Read Full Reports
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 28.Dec.2015 to 01.Jan.2016

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 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
Choppy next week on F&O rollovers; bias positive

Next week, trade in local equities is expected to be choppy and stock-specific due to
rollover of derivative positions, as the December series will expire. During the expiry
week, market typically tends to be volatile. However, this time dealers expect
volatility to be low. The overall bias is slightly positive as indices have ended up for
the second consecutive week. But, the upside is seen capped as due to lack of any
major positive triggers and year-end holidays globally.

Yesterday, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex ended flat at 7861.05 points and 25838.71
points, respectively, due to absence of any triggers. Breakout above 8000 (on Nifty
50) would be the first confirmation of the resumption of the uptrend at least for the
medium term. The S&P BSE's Sensex closed flat at 25838.71 points. Most market
participants see indices ending 2015 on a positive note and are hoping for a better
2016.

We expect the mid-cap sector to continue to outperform large-caps in the next year,
although action may turn stock-specific, as valuations are getting expensive. The key
reason for the out-performance of mid-caps is the fact that the positive impact of
operating leverage and financial leverage has been more profound compared to large
caps.

This trend is expected to continue on the back of an incremental fall in input costs and
likely reduction in interest rates in CY16. The mid-cap space is Bajaj Finserv, Jagran
Prakashan, Jet Airways, Greaves Cotton, Ashoka Buildcon, Somany Ceramics, among
others. Among sectors, technical charts indicate banks may remain weak next week.

During the session, selling in banking stocks pulled down Nifty 50 and Sensex to the
day's low of 7835.50 points and 25763.40 points, respectively. Although Nifty Bank
had touched a high of 16939.60 points, it failed to sustain gains due to lack of followup
buying and this indicates that some selling is likely. In view of the expected
pressure in banks, traders should keep their positions light on Nifty 50.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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