Showing posts with label INDIAN MARKET OUTLOOK. Show all posts
Showing posts with label INDIAN MARKET OUTLOOK. Show all posts

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016
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 Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016
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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016


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Domestic share indices are seen weak because of uncertainty in the global markets, impact of
currency curb move and Jul-Sep corporate earnings. Stock indices ended the week at their lowest
closing levels since the end of June. On Monday, local share markets will be closed on account of
Guru Nanak Jayanti.

Release of inflation data for October next week, and industrial production data for September,
released today, will also lend cues to investor sentiment. Industrial production in September grew
only 0.7% as against 3.7% growth a year ago. It, though, managed to beat the estimate of 0.5%.
Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (Combined) and that based on the Wholesale Price
Index will be released on Tuesday after market hours. The CPI inflation rate is seen falling to a 14-
month low of 4.1% in October from 4.31% in September, according to the median of a poll of 22
economists. The WPI inflation rate is seen at 3.7% in October compared with 3.57% a month ago,
according to a median of a poll of 14 economists.

Stocks of consumption related companies such as fast moving consumer good companies and
automobile companies will continue to be under pressure, as the Government’s decision to
demonetize high denomination currency notes is likely to negatively impact their sales in Oct-Dec.
Right now people are wary of buying anything...they are trying to retain cash. However, these stocks
may see a consolidation next week, after the recent fall, as the likelihood of a decline in demand is
mostly priced in now.

Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended at 8296.30, down 229.45 points or 2.7% from the Previous close, and
the Sensex closed down 698.86 points or 2.5% at 26818.82. Next week, Nifty 50 is seen moving in
the range of 8200-8500 points on only technical based. We do not see any relief amid looming
uncertainty on the global front and not so encouraging domestic cues. So, we are suggest restricting
leveraged positions and wait for the markets to stabilise first.

Interest rate-sensitive stocks such as banks will also remain in focus as prospects of an interest rate
hike in the US increased after the election of Donald Trump as the US president. Trump's policies
are seen stoking inflation in the US, which may lead the US Federal Reserve to raise rates.
Stocks of Nifty 50 companies detailing their earnings later yesterday, on Saturday and next week
will also take centre stage next week. Tata Motors, Aurobindo Pharma and GAIL (India) will detail
their earnings next week, while Hindalco Industries, Tata Steel and Bharat Petroleum Corp has
report their earnings yesterday and on Saturday.

Stocks of Bank of Baroda eyed on Tuesday as the company detailed its Jul-Sep earnings yesterday.
The lender's net profit rose to 5.5 bln from 1.2 bln rupees a year ago and its provisioning for nonperforming
assets went down 11.6% on year to 16.3 bln rupees. Stocks of IL&FS Engineering and
Construction Co are likely to gain as the company secured 1.49-bln-rupee order from the Uttar

Pradesh government.
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7.Sep.2015 to 11.Sep.2015 - Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for fhe Week

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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 07 to 11.09.2015

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( www.rupeedesk.in )

The equity market will continue to face the risk of a further slump next week as investors around the world grapple with fears of yet another slowdown in the global economy. Yesterday, the National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at a 13-month low of 7665.05, down 2.2% from Thursday, and posting a fall of 4.3% for the week.

After fall, there will be caution till the US Federal Reserve's next monetary policy meeting on Sep 16-17. The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 25201.90 points, down 2.2% from Thursday.

Global markets will track the trend in US equities, which are likely to fall last day. Dow futures fell over 180 points after the release of the US non-farm payrolls data. Non-farm payrolls rose 173,000 in August. Also, unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, the lowest rate since April, 2008.

According to the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's July meeting, some
policymakers showed concerns over lagging inflation and awaited further progress in the labour
market before tightening monetary policy. There is an expectation that the data will give an indication of the rate hike in US...

Domestically, there are no triggers (for equities). There is talk of having a Parliamentary session for GST (Goods and Service Tax Bill), but it is not happening.

The Nifty is seen finding immediate support at 7500 points level. On the other hand, any rebound in the Nifty could lead the index to face resistance at 8000 points. Among sectors, banking and other rate-sensitive stocks are likely to be weak, with market participants advising investors to avoid them until the market stabilises. Investors advised to buy pharmaceutical and information technology stocks among defensives. The weak rupee against the dollar is a key factor affecting information technology stocks.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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24.Aug.2015 - 28.Aug.2015 - Weekly Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook

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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.08.2015 Seen range bound with a positive bias

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Concerns over slowdown in the global economy will continue to weigh on market sentiment in the coming week, with benchmark indices likely to fall further. Amid the persisting weak sentiment, one stock that will be in the limelight on Monday is Indian Oil Corp, in which the government will divest 10% stake through an offer for sale on Monday. Yesterday, stocks of Indian Oil ended down 0.7% at 394.85 rupees. The uncertainty in the global markets seems to have offset the news of government considering giving relief to foreign institutional investors on the minimum alternate tax issue.

The news is unlikely to soothe market sentiment in a big way. It will provide initial support but if the macro overhang continues, not too much positive will come out of this. Moreover, expiry of the August futures contracts on Thursday will keep trade volatile during the week. We expect the August futures contract of the National Stock Exchange's Nifty to expire around 8300 points. The likely weakness in the rupee will also weigh.

Yesterday, the rupee ended at 65.8250 per dollar, its lowest closing since Sep 5, 2013. Worries that a slowdown in the Chinese economy will translate into slower global growth saw the Nifty and the S&P BSE Sensex falling 2.6% and 2.5%, respectively, this week.

The benchmark indices have effectively erased all the gains made this year. Besides global concerns, persisting worries over lack of progress on key legislations and pick-up in earnings growth, and uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's rate hike move have led to the gradual weakening in domestic equities. Year to date, Nifty is up 0.2% and Sensex is down 0.5%.

Yesterday, Nifty and Sensex ended at a two-month low. Nifty closed at 8299.95, down 72.80 points or 0.9% and Sensex ended at 27366.07, down 241.75 points or 0.9%. Banks and Metal stocks are likely to extend losses and a stock-specific approach next week.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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INDIAN MARKET & 9 MAJOR SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 24.Nov.2014 to 28.Nov.2014

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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.11.2014

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Benchmark equity indices are seen rangebound with a positive bias in the coming sessions ahead
of expiry of the November derivatives contract on Thursday. Market participants will keenly
watch for cues from overseas markets too.

However, some market participants expect profit booking to set in. Nifty is seen trading at
overbought zone levels, major indicators are suggesting some correction. The Nifty is expected
to trade in the 8000-8500 points range next week.

Yesterday, the 50-share Nifty ended at a record closing high of 8477.35, up 75.45 points or
0.9%. Intraday, the index hit a record high of 8489.80 points.

The S&P BSE Sensex also ended at a record closing high of 28334.63, up 267.07 points or 0.9%.
Intraday, it touched a record high of 28360.66 points.Action will mostly be stock specific as
investors await major reforms.

The goods and services tax bill and insurance bill will be tabled in the winter session of the
Parliament that begins next week. Most market participants refrained from stock selection for the
week due to lack of broader participation in the rally.

We believe this upward (trend) would continue but broader participation is required to regain the momentum. Meanwhile, participants are advised to uphold stock specific approach and strictly
avoid illiquid stocks from the cash segment.

Investors believe that there is further steam in most bank stocks after the Bank Nifty touched a
lifetime high of 18139.95 points. Further upside is seen in ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, State Bank of
India, and IndusInd Bank.

Movement in rupee will determine the trend in information technology stocks such as Wipro,
Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, and Infosys.

Stocks of most metal companies such as Jindal Steel and Power, Steel Authority of India and
Tata Steel are expected to weaken in the coming sessions as a fall in steel prices due to low
demand, higher steel exports from China, and a volatile outlook for pricing of base metals has dampened sentiment
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INDIAN MARKET & MAJOR SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 10.Nov.2014 to 14.Nov.2014

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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.11.2014

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Benchmark share indices are expected to be in a range and may trade with some caution next week. The market will take cues from a slew of economic data to be released on November 12. The Central Statistics Office will release the industrial production data for September and the consumer price index based inflation data for October on Wednesday. Indian equity markets are expected to trade with caution next week. Market participants will await crucial CPI data for Oct and IIP for Sept which will give pace of industrial production. The 50-share Nifty yesterday ended at 8337.00, down 1.30 points from Wednesday's close, and the S&P BSE Sensex ended at 27868.63, down 47.25 or 0.2%.

The industrial production data for September will be closely watched by market participants. The IIP for August was at 0.4%, against expectation of 2.3%. In September, the inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index fell to a record low of 6.46% from 7.73% a month ago and 7.20% estimated. CPI is expected to ease slightly as non-core inflation is seen easing on back of lower global crude prices. Banking, realty and auto sectors are seen in focus. We see consolidation in the market and expect it to move sideways in the next week.

Stocks of public sector banks are expected to see some correction as most small- and mid-cap public sector banks such as UCO Bank, Syndicate Bank and Corporation Bank have reported worsening asset quality. However, private sector lenders such as ICICI Bank and Axis Bank are expected to see further upside. Stocks of ICICI Bank and AxisBank yesterday ended up 0.8% at 1,684.70 rupees and 2.4% at 469.05 rupees, respectively.

We believe markets are in normal consolidation phase which usually happen post an exceptional move. And, participants, especially those who wish to trade and invest fresh, can consider this as an opportunity to buy stocks from private banking, auto, finance, and midcap space.

Stocks of Larsen & Toubro, that reported Jul-Sep results post market hours yesterday, the company posted a net profit of 8.6 bln rupees for the quarter ended September, against an estimate of 9.7 bln rupees. Investors may also exercise caution as the revenue growth estimate for 2014-15 (Apr-Mar) has been revised by the company to 10-15% from 15%. However, downside in the stock is expected to be limited as the company's net profit surged 7% on year
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 22.09.2014 to 26.09.2014

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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.09.2014

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Benchmark stock indices are expected to move within a narrow range next week amid
lack of any major triggers. Equities may witness volatility as the September derivatives
contract expires next week. However, the overall outlook for equities remains positive
due to continued inflows from foreign investors. When market sentiment is strong and
small- and mid-caps are making new highs, our advice to investors would be to remain
discrete and look to stay invested in quality companies with good management track
record.

Encouraging economic data and easing crude oil prices over the past few sessions have
also aided the prevailing upbeat sentiment. Platform for India has become better as crude
corrects, WPI (Wholesale Price Index inflation) lowers and fiscal structure improves just
awaiting reforms to start. Some market participants believe investors will turn cautious in
the latter part of the week ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review,
which will be held on Sep 30. They broadly expect the National Stock Exchange's 50-
share Nifty to move between 7900 points and 8250 points.

Yesterday, the Nifty ended at 8121.45, up 6.70 points or 0.1% from Thursday's close and
the S&P BSE Sensex ended at 27090.42, down 21.79 points or 0.1%. Rate-sensitive
stocks, such as those of banks and capital goods, may rise next week as we does not
expect any negative surprises from the RBI policy review. In the absence of any major
domestic triggers, investors will look at overseas markets for direction. Apart from
overseas markets, data on rainfall will also be eyed by market participants.

Action may be largely stock-specific, with mid-caps continuing their rise. However, some
market players believe frontline stocks will be better plays. Stocks of information
technology companies are expected to rise next week, with Tata Consultancy Services
leading the pack. Stocks of private banks, pharmaceutical companies and construction
companies are also expected to do well next week in the coming week. Stocks of
Jaiprakash Associates may rise on Monday as the company said post market hours
yesterday that it has inked a pact with Shree Cement to sell its cement grinding unit of 1.5 
mtpa capacity at Panipat, Haryana, for 3.6 bln rupees.

www.rupeedesk.in
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INDIAN MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK – 15 TO 19.09.2014

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 15.09.2014 to 19.09.2014

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Stock indices are likely to continue their rangebound movement next week, due to
disappointing industrial growth data for July. India's industrial growth slowed to 0.5% in
July against expectations of 1.8%, data released yesterday. Consumer price inflation for
August was at 7.8%, in line with expectations.

Most market players do not see the Nifty slipping below the 8000-point mark due to the
data. Resistance for the Nifty is pegged at 8200 points.

On Monday, the commerce and industry ministry will detail the Wholesale Price Indexbased
inflation data. India's inflation rate based on the WPI is likely to have fallen to a
near five-year low of 4.5% in August, mostly due to statistical impact of a high base. In
July, WPI inflation rate was at a five-month low of 5.19%.

Investor attention next week will also be on US Federal Open Market Committee's twoday
monetary policy meeting that begins on Tuesday. Investors will closely watch out for
the Fed's stance on interest rates at the policy announcement, which is due after market
hours on Wednesday.

Crude oil prices and movement of the rupee will also be closely watched. Among sectors,
outlook for the pharmaceutical sector is positive and most see shares of Lupin and Cipla
advancing further.

We remain positive on pharma sector given the robust growth in US generics and healthy
sales in domestic market which would drive margin expansion for most of our coverage
universe. Lupin remains our top large cap pick while IPCA Labs and Alembic would be
the preferred mid caps. Market participants expect mid-cap shares to continue to move
up.

However, select shares like Gujarat State Fertilizers and Chemicals may attract some
profit booking. The stock rose nearly 44% this week

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )
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